From Havana to Mexico: Cuban Families Face Mounting Instability

May 29

Written By CEDA The Center for Engagement and Advocacy in the Americas

Humanitarian conditions in Cuba continue to deteriorate amid chronic energy shortages, U.S. oil sanctions, and deepening economic collapse. After a temporary reprieve provided by a Russian oil shipment in March, Cuban officials stated at the beginning of May that the country had run out of oil. Weeks ago, ship-tracking data showed another Russian tanker carrying 242,000 barrels of diesel headed to Cuba, but it now appears to have rerouted. As blackouts persist and fuel becomes increasingly scarce, many Cubans have resorted to using charcoal and firewood for cooking, demonstrating the desperation many on the island feel.

These worsening conditions on the island are now intersecting with mounting pressures on Cuban migrants and asylum seekers in the US. A new Human Rights Watch report documents how Cubans deported from the US to Mexico are being left in highly precarious conditions. The report estimates that 4,353 Cubans were deported to Mexico between January 2025 and March 2026, many of whom were left without legal status, stable housing, employment, or access to humanitarian support. Human Rights Watch documented cases involving elderly deportees, families with children, and individuals stranded in dangerous conditions with limited resources and no clear pathway forward.

This is taking shape as over 500,000 Cubans in the US are at risk of detention and deportation as a result of a myriad of shifting immigration policies, including the Trump administration’s termination of humanitarian parole programs such as the Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV) parole program. Many of the 500,000 remain in legal limbo because they were released into the US under an Order of Release or Recognizance (Form I-220A) rather than being paroled. These groups represent a large and increasingly vulnerable diaspora population whose legal uncertainty is being shaped by shifting U.S. immigration enforcement priorities. In recent reporting, this group of Cubans has emerged as a potential bargaining chip for the administration in negotiations with Cuba.

These developments suggest that migration pressures linked to Cuba’s economic crisis are no longer confined to the island itself but are now producing a regional ripple effect. The worsening humanitarian conditions inside Cuba are pushing outward in the form of increased displacement throughout the hemisphere and the world, while policy shifts in receiving countries are amplifying the precarity of Cuban migrants. In this context, Cuban migration is increasingly defined by a widening cycle of vulnerability that spans origin, transit, and destination countries.

Building on the developments of recent weeks, the US appears to be steadily escalating pressure on Cuba, reinforced by a wave of reporting, intelligence leaks, and public warnings. On May 17, an Axiosreport, citing classified U.S. intelligence, alleged that Cuba has acquired 300 drones and has begun discussing plans to use them for a potential attack targeting the US. Axios also reported that U.S. officials believe Cuba has been acquiring drones from Russia and Iran since 2023. Cuba has denied threatening the United States and accused Washington of fabricating allegations to justify further escalation. The Cuban Embassy in the U.S. stated on X that Cuba has no “aggressive plans or intentions against any country.” Cuba’s Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, added, “Cuba, like every nation in the world, has the right to its legitimate defense against any external aggression.”

Regardless, Cuba’s government appears to be preparing its citizens for the possibility of conflict, circulating a pamphlet titled “Family Guide for Protection Against Military Aggression” instructing families on how to pack survival kits and telling them to seek shelter if they hear air raid sirens, among other things. Cuba’s military consists of a mere 40,000 to 45,000 active-duty soldiers, down from 200,000 in its heyday before the fall of the Soviet Union. Military experts argue the island is in no realistic position to confront the US militarily and has few defense mechanisms in place, even if it could still inflict limited harm in the event of a conflict.

Adding to the military escalation narrative, officials also toldAxios that U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) has been preparing for military action in Cuba and recently conducted a “multiagency tabletop exercise.” The Wall Street Journal published a piece reporting that China and Russia have increased their intelligence-gathering apparatus in Cuba in an effort to monitor U.S. activity in Florida. The article itself acknowledges that the timing of this information is questionable, as Chinese and Russian intelligence activity on the island is nothing new and has long been a concern for lawmakers in Washington.

The uptick in recent reporting about potential security concerns involving Cuba certainly warrants attention. What is notable, however, is that much of the reporting relies on anonymous administration sources even as U.S. officials have stated publicly that they are not looking at imminent military action against Havana. The timing, volume, and sourcing of these stories have prompted questions among observers about whether certain information is being deliberately amplified. As a result, some analysts have drawn comparisons to media and intelligence dynamics that preceded the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

The most significant escalation yet, while symbolic, came on May 20, when the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) indicted Cuba’s former President Raúl Castro and five other individuals for their “alleged roles in the February 24, 1996 shootdown of two unarmed U.S. civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue (BTTR), also known as Hermanos al Rescate, over international waters.” The Administration held a complementary press conference in Miami featuring Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Florida Senator Ashley Moody, and other Florida and DOJ officials. The announcement also coincided with Cuba’s original independence day, although it has not been officially celebrated by Cuba’s government since 1959. Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded to the indictment on X, writing that “no imprudent action was taken nor was international law violated…Cuba acted in legitimate self-defense.”

The same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a video in Spanish, targeted at Cubans, conveying that the U.S. government supports the Cuban people while condemning the actions of Cuba’s government. The indictment does not appear to have generated a uniformly positive response inside Cuba. Reactions have been mixed, reflecting not only differing views of Raúl Castro and Cuba’s government but also a broader sense of fatigue among many Cubans who are increasingly focused on the country’s economic and humanitarian challenges rather than longstanding political battles.

In a presidential message, the White House used the moment to highlight the success of the Maduro operation and to recognize the contributions of Cuban Americans to the US. Its tone also contrasted with previous rhetoric the President has used toward other immigrant communities, including Venezuelans.

The Venezuela comparison was further reinforced when CBSreported that during Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe’s recent visit to Cuba, he brought with him an operator involved in the Maduro operation. SOUTHCOM also moved the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and three escort warships to the Caribbean on the same day as the indictment. Meanwhile, President Trump explicitly stated, “There won't be escalation” with Cuba.

While the indictment represented an escalation in U.S.-Cuba tensions, its significance extends beyond the legal case itself. It also responded to long-standing demands for accountability from the families of those killed in the 1996 shootdown and from many Cuban-American exile groups, for whom the case carries deep symbolic and emotional significance. At the same time, it had important domestic political implications. It was welcomed by many Cuban Americans in South Florida who are growing restless and, by some accounts, beginning to feel frustrated with reports of ongoing negotiations between Washington and Havana, as many favor a more hardline approach toward Cuba’s government. About this, former South Florida Congressman Joe Garcia observed, “If a Democrat was doing what Marco is doing, there would be riots in Miami.”

U.S.-CUBA NEWS

Second Wave of Sanctions Hits Cuban Officials and State Agencies

On May 25, the Trump administration implemented additional sanctions against 11 Cuban government officials and military figures, and three government agencies. Alongside these designations, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) released a comprehensive list of the individuals and organizations affected by the sanctions. Among those listed are senior Communist Party leader Roberto Tomás Morales Ojeda, who previously served as minister of public health and vice president, and Joaquín Quintas Solá, the current vice minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces and a general in Cuba’s army. The blacklisted entities include the National Revolutionary Police (PNR), the Ministry of the Interior (MININT), and the Intelligence Directorate (G2). The sanctions require the listed individuals and organizations to freeze all assets under U.S. jurisdiction and, by extension, prohibit business activities with U.S. individuals and companies. According to the May 1 executive order, these sanctions are only one in a broader series of expected sanctions in the foreseeable future

This is the second round of sanctions implemented by the Trump administration in the month of May. On May 17, shipping companies CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd announced the suspension of bookings to and from Cuba until further notice. According to a report by Reuters, this could result in the loss of 60 percent of the island’s maritime traffic. The company cited the May 1 executive order as the catalyst for their decisions. Similarly, Meliá, a Spanish hotel chain that manages 34 properties owned by the Cuban state, has been forced to reduce its available rooms by 50 percent. Although the company has not explicitly stated plans to cease operations, these actions may foreshadow such a decision.

Lawmakers Aim to Prevent Unauthorized U.S. Military Action Against Cuba

On May 27, Representatives Nydia Velázquez (NY-7) and Gregory Meeks (NY-5) introduced House Joint Resolution 106, which aims to prevent unauthorized U.S. military action against Cuba amidst escalation. This resolution mirrors a draft Senate Joint Resolution by Senators Tim Kaine (VA), Ruben Gallego (AZ), and Adam Schiff (CA), specifically calling for the removal of hostilities within or against Cuba “unless explicitly authorized.” As War Powers resolutions, both measures receive expedited procedural consideration, though their prospects for passage remain uncertain.

Congressional concern over the administration’s Cuba policy has extended beyond military escalation. On May 22, Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) Chairwoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-9) issued a letter to President Trump and Secretary Rubio demanding an end to the oil blockade on the island. In the letter, the CBC argued that the administration’s economic pressure has contributed to worsening humanitarian conditions, such as rising infant mortality rates, threats of starvation, and a rapid decline in the standard of living for Cubans.

Supreme Court Rules In Favor of the Havana Docks Corporation

On May 21, the Supreme Court ruled 8-1 in favor of Havana Docks Corporation in Havana Docks Corporation v. Royal Caribbean Cruises. Havana Docks, a U.S. company that previously owned the right to use and operate the docks in the port of Havana, can pursue approximately $440 million in judgments against major cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Carnival, and MSC. The justification was that the cruise lines were “trafficking” by using the confiscated property.

This case tested the reach of the Title III Helms-Burton Act (LIBERTAD Act), which allows U.S. nationals to file lawsuits against individuals and entities who “traffic in property which was confiscated by Cuba’s government on or after January 1, 1959”. Although the LIBERTAD Act was passed on March 12, 1996, every U.S. president suspended the implementation of Title III, citing national interests, until President Trump declined to renew the suspension on May 2, 2019. The LIBERTAD Act also codifies the U.S. embargo against Cuba into federal law. It mandates that one of the prerequisites for removing the embargo is the compensation of the confiscated property's original U.S. owners, further complicating present-day negotiations between the two countries.

DOJ Reportedly Investigating U.S. Nonprofits and Activists Over Cuba Advocacy

Fox Newsreported that officials from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Department of the Treasury have begun investigating nonprofit organizations and activist groups accused of coordinating with Cuba’s government. The reported probe is focused on possible violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), specifically whether organizations or individuals received compensation from Cuba’s government in exchange for advocacy work.

A Fox News investigation identified 145 nonprofits, labor groups, advocacy organizations, and activist collectives that the outlet claims are “mobilizing in support of Cuba’s government and the Communist Party of Cuba.” Fox also reported that these organizations collectively account for roughly $1 billion in annual revenue. A spokeswoman for the Embassy of Cuba in Washington told Fox News that Cuban diplomats “have a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs” of another state.

Similar reporting also alleges that the DOJ is examining the activities of political streamer Hasan Piker, CodePink co-founder Medea Benjamin, and CodePink D.C. coordinator Olivia DiNucci. Fox News further claimed that Piker and Benjamin were served administrative subpoenas related to their participation in the Nuestra América convoy that traveled to Cuba in March, though those reports remain unconfirmed. Benjamin has explicitly denied receiving a subpoena.

Cuban Officials’ Family Arrested in Florida

On May 22, Adys Lastres Morera, the sister of Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera, Executive President of GAESA, was arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Homeland Security Investigations (HSI). Secretary Rubio alleged on X that Morera was “managing real estate assets and living in Florida, while also aiding Havana's communist regime.” Her lawful permanent resident status was revoked on May 20. Morera entered the U.S. in 2023 as a lawful permanent resident and never filed to adjust her status. She is currently in ICE detention.

Univision also reported that Alina Rosales Aguirreurreta, daughter of Cuban General Ulises Rosales del Toro, was arrested in Florida by ICE. Journalists have located her name in ICE’s public data records. Aguirreurreta allegedly entered the US in 2023 with a B1/B2 tourist visa issued in Havana and remained in South Florida while waiting to regularize her immigration status.

IN CUBA

Sherritt Maintains Cuba Operations Amid Potential U.S.-Linked Deal

After announcing on May 7 that it would suspend and dissolve its joint venture with Cuba’s General Nickel Company S.A., Sherritt International reversed course on May 19, stating that it would no longer proceed with dissolving the venture, though the suspension of operations remains in place. Under a 1994 agreement, Sherritt and General Nickel Company S.A. jointly own a nickel and cobalt mining operation in Cuba.

According to the company, the reversal came after Sherritt was “presented on a preliminary basis with a potential value-preserving opportunity” that it is now evaluating alongside its advisors. On the same day, Sherritt issued another statement announcing that it had entered into a non-binding term sheet with U.S.-based Gillon Capital, LLC. If finalized, the deal would allow Gillon Capital to acquire warrants that could ultimately give it ownership of 55 percent of Sherritt’s common shares, effectively granting the firm control of the company.

The proposed transaction has reportedly not raised concerns with the U.S. Department of State or the U.S. Department of the Treasury, although it will still likely require final approval. The transaction must also receive approval from regulators, including the Toronto Stock Exchange. Gillon Capital is affiliated with the Ray Washburne family. Washburne is a former advisor to President Trump and held a central role in the development of a U.S. government development finance institution during President Trump’s first term.

Blackout Protests Spread Across Havana

On the evening of May 13, protests broke out across Havana, beginning in the San Miguel del Padrón neighborhood before spreading to multiple areas throughout the capital. The demonstrations followed announcements by Cuban officials that the country had exhausted oil supplies, including a recent shipment provided by Russia, a development expected to further worsen Cuba’s ongoing electricity shortages.

Protesters banged pots and pans, shouted in the streets, and burned trash and other objects in several neighborhoods. The unrest prompted the U.S. Embassy in Cuba to issue a security alert. While protests over blackouts and living conditions have become increasingly common in Cuba, they typically occur on a smaller scale and continue nightly in various parts of the island. One of the most significant recent demonstrations took place in the city of Morón, where an initially small protest escalated after participants reportedly threw stones at the local Communist Party headquarters. At least 16 people were arrested in connection with the incident, including four teenagers. Among them was 16-year-old Jonathan Muir.

Thousands of Cubans Protest Recent Indictment of Raúl Castro

On May 22, thousands of Cubans gathered outside the U.S. Embassy in Havana to protest the DOJ decision to indict former President Raúl Castro Cruz, 94, in connection with the February 24, 1996, shoot-down of two unarmed U.S. civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue over international waters. The rally was organized by Cuba’s government.

The indictment, which also charged five other Cuban nationals, marked a significant escalation in U.S. pressure on the island. President Díaz-Canel and Prime Minister Manuel Marrero attended, as did several of Castro’s family members, including his daughter Mariela Castro, son Alejandro Castro, and grandson Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro. Raúl Castro himself was not present and has not made a public appearance since May 1 during the Workers’ Day parade. This has drawn attention amid speculation about his health and the broader context of U.S.-Cuba relations.

CUBA’S FOREIGN RELATIONS

Mexico and Uruguay Aid Ship Arrives in Havana

On May 18, a ship carrying humanitarian aid from the governments of Mexico and Uruguay arrived in Havana. The shipment included personal hygiene products along with 1,700 tons of grains, powdered milk, and other food supplies. Unlike previous aid deliveries, which were transported by Mexico's navy, this shipment arrived aboard a Chinese-owned merchant vessel sailing under a Panamanian flag. It marked the first joint aid shipment involving Uruguay and the sixth known aid shipment from Mexico to Cuba, with the previous delivery arriving on May 11. President Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly thanked Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum on X. As tensions between the U.S. and Cuba continue to escalate and relations between the U.S. and Mexico remain strained, online coverage of the shipment’s arrival was notably limited.

China Delivers Rice Shipment

On May 23, a cargo ship from China arrived in Havana carrying 15,000 tons of rice, prompting President Díaz-Canel to publicly thank China for its support. The shipment is reportedly part of a broader Chinese commitment to provide Cuba with 60,000 tons of grain, suggesting that at least three additional shipments could follow if vessels of similar size are used. China has remained one of Cuba’s most important international partners, not only providing food aid but also supporting the island’s investment in solar energy infrastructure as Cuba seeks to reduce its dependence on imported oil.

Recommended Reading, Listening & Viewing:

View | The New York Times: A Nation Going Dark

View | The Atlantic: Photos: Cuba Runs out of Fuel

Read | POLITICO: Yes, Trump Might Really Attack Cuba

Read | The Atlantic: How Cuban History Broke a Family

Read | Associated Press: A timeline of recent US-Cuba relations amid heightened tensions in Trump’s second term

Read | CNN: Why Castro’s indictment could lead to war between the US and Cuba

Read | Atlantic Council: After the Castro indictment, what is Trump’s endgame in Cuba?

Read | The New York Times: Washington Is Still Trying To Rewrite Cuban History

Read | The Atlantic: How to Break Cuba

Read | POLITICO: ‘Rabbit holes all over the place’: How hard it would be for Trump to rebuild Cuba

Leer | CNN Español: Estados Unidos y su fijación con Cuba, una isla que se resiste al cambio