Tensions at Sea as U.S. Oil Policy Signals Limited Opening to Cuba’s Private Sector
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In recent weeks, US-Cuba relations have been shaped by several developments unfolding along different tracks. On one front, a policy shift in Washington could provide limited economic relief to Cuba’s private sector. On another, a deadly confrontation at sea risks escalating tensions. Compounding these developments, breaking news revealed discreet diplomatic engagement between the State Department and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson and close aide of Raúl Castro. These developments illustrate the fragile nature of current relations between the two nations, as tensions rise while pragmatic engagement and limited policy recalibration continue quietly in the background.
On February 25, Cuba’s government reported that a speedboat registered in Florida approached within one nautical mile of El Pino channel in the Villa Clara province in central Cuba. According to Havana, Cuban Border Guard troops requested that the vessel identify itself. Officials allege that the ten men onboard responded by opening fire, injuring a Cuban commander. Border Guard forces returned fire, killing four and injuring six.
The boat’s owner has filed an incident report alleging it was stolen by a former employee. At least one of the men killed and one arrested are U.S. citizens; others are believed to be legal permanent residents, and one reportedly holds a K-1 visa. U.S. officials confirmed that some of the men onboard have criminal records. The survivors are allegedly being held at a hospital in Cuba.
Cuba’s government identified all ten of the individuals and stated it was willing to share information with U.S. authorities, who have signaled openness to communication. Havana also claimed that two of the survivors face terrorism charges in Cuba. Cuba’s government also acknowledged that it initially misidentified one individual who did not participate in the incident.
Cuban authorities claim the boat carried assault rifles, handguns, Molotov cocktails, bulletproof vests, telescopic sights, and camouflage uniforms.
The U.S. government has not confirmed Havana’s accounts of the events. On February 25, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that Washington is working to independently verify what occurred. Narratives surrounding the incident have sharply diverged. Much of the South Florida exile community has framed the men as “freedom fighters,” while Havana has continuously labeled them “terrorists.”
Unconfirmed reports suggest the group may have intended to provoke unrest on the island. A friend of survivor Amijail Sánchez González told POLITICO that Sánchez González participated in efforts to recruit Cubans to revolt against the government. One of the deceased, Michel Ortega Casanova, had spoken publicly about “liberating the island.” His brother told the Associated Press that the men were “obsessed” with liberating the island, so much so “that they didn't think about the consequences nor their own lives.”
The idea of sparking an uprising has long circulated in South Florida exile circles, and has been attempted before. Most recently in 2022 when a U.S.-based speedboat fired on Cuban Border Guard forces near Villa Clara, wounding a Cuban officer.
South Florida lawmakers have cited the incident to accelerate calls for regime change. Representative Carlos Gimenez (FL-28) described the incident as a “massacre,” adding that “#Cuba must be completely annihilated & relegated to the ash heap of history.” The calls follow a recent push for the indictment of Raúl Castro by the Department of Justice for his role in the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft belonging to Brothers to the Rescue.
Before the maritime clash, a separate policy shift signaled a limited opening.
Updated guidance from the Department of Commerce clarified that oil firms can export oil directly to Cuba’s private sector or individuals for personal or family use, eliminating the need for licenses from the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) and with no quantity caps. Simultaneously, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) released a new FAQ indicating that US companies can also resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector, provided that the transactions do not involve entities on the State Department's Cuba Restricted List. Cuban entrepreneurs in South Florida are already stepping up to the plate, hoping to accelerate fuel exports to the micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that make up Cuba’s private sector.
These changes follow Havana’s decision in early February to allow MSMEs to import fuel from abroad, adding that the purchases must be run through state-run importers and fuel must be stored in state-approved facilities. Over 11,000 MSMEs have been established in Cuba since the introduction of the private sector in 2021. Yet in 2026, many MSMEs are struggling amid worsening fuel shortages and tightened U.S. measures.
AUGE, a Havana-based private consulting firm, reported that 78 percent of MSMEs saw sales decline following a January 29 executive order from President Trump. The decline can be linked to reductions in operations by large players such as Cubamax and Supermarket 23, a private online grocery delivery service that paused orders due to the fuel shortage.
While expanded private-sector fuel imports may slow the acceleration of shortages, it is unlikely they can replace the scale of state-level oil shipments without further U.S. policy adjustments. Washington maintains firm restrictions ensuring that assistance cannot flow through Cuba’s government.
This change puts near-absolute control into the Trump administration’s hands of oil going into the island, as there has been no indication that the de facto oil blockade will cease. This gives the US a significant amount of leverage to negotiate political and or economic change of their choosing.
On February 27, President Trump suggested a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, stating, “The Cuban government is talking with us. They’re in a big deal of trouble, as you know. They have no money, no anything right now.” Meanwhile, Secretary Rubio has repeatedly emphasized the importance of “economic freedom” for Cuba adding that the island “doesn't have to change all at once.” In an interview with Bloomberg, he hinted that economic reform could be an off-ramp, remarking, “I think certainly their willingness to begin to make openings in this regard is one potential way forward.” Former Representative Joe Garcia (FL-26) similarly described economic engagement as “the most sensible, prudent, and humane path: to drive change through an economic solution.”
Behind the scenes, it is now clear that negotiations between the two nations are underway.
All signs point to ongoing and deepening diplomatic talks between the US and Cuba. Reports indicate that Secretary Rubio has been holding secret talks with Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro. Most recently, one of Secretary Rubio’s advisors met with Rodríguez Castro during the CARICOM conference in St. Kitts and Nevis, where many member-nations have taken time to push for healthy dialogue with Cuba. The Miami Herald reported that the potential deal involves the US easing sanctions in return for reforms on the island on a “month-by-month basis.”
Meanwhile, Chargé d'Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Cuba, Mike Hammer, met with over 100 Cubans from civil society and exile organizations in Madrid to discuss the political future of the island. He also told Spanish newspaper ABC that Washington is in “communications with certain individuals” within Cuba’s government, signaling the groundwork is being laid for some form of regime change on the island.
President Trump has even signaled that Cubans should be able to return to the island soon, stating, “We have a lot of great Cuban Americans, and they’re going to be very happy when they’re going to be able to go back and say hello to their relatives and do things that they should have been allowed to do for a long time.” CEDA Executive Director María José Espinosa provided analysis of these comments for El País:
“This rhetoric resonates with sectors of the exile community that have historically prioritized issues such as the restitution or compensation of confiscated properties, the protection of legal claims under the Helms-Burton Act, and differentiated benefits for the Cuban diaspora in a potential transition process. In this sense, the ‘return’ narrative functions as a signal, both internally and externally, about the conditions under which the United States would be willing to reconfigure its relationship with Cuba.”
Whatever political path forward emerges, the Cuban people remain caught in an intensifying crisis.
Amid geopolitical maneuvering, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. Fuel shortages have crippled transportation, food distribution, waste removal, and medical services. Some of the most graphic illustrations of hardship on the island include a deceased man being taken to a cemetery in a wheelbarrow and buried in a cardboard box due to the lack of wood for a coffin and the lack of fuel to properly transport him to his resting place. Reports showing residents burning mounds of garbage in order to consolidate waste as the sheer amount begins to overwhelm the streets. Trash trucks no longer have the fuel to pick it up, causing black snowflakes and the constant smell of burning to overwhelm the air.
Cuba’s healthcare system is on the verge of complete collapse as flights with vital supplies are no longer arriving, electricity is not stable making it dangerous or impossible to administer surgeries or treatments, and there is no fuel for ambulances to respond to emergencies. Videos posted on social media demonstrate the poor conditions at hospitals.
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US-CUBA NEWS
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs Targeting Cuba’s Oil Supply
On February 20, President Trump signed an executive order to end the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on several countries, including Cuba. Those tariffs had been established in a January 29 executive order targeting countries that directly or indirectly sell or supply oil to Cuba.
This move follows a Supreme Court decision that determined the tariffs imposed by President Trump violated federal law. In its ruling, the Supreme Court clarified that the IEEPA allows for the regulation of foreign trade in emergency situations but does not grant explicit authority to impose taxes.
Despite the elimination of tariffs under the IEEPA, the most recent executive order upholds two key points: the national emergency declared on Cuba and any action taken in response to that emergency. As a result, although the tariffs have been lifted, other measures may still be used to prevent oil shipment from reaching Cuba.
Specifically, the Trump administration may shift to using Section 232 or 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 to target oil suppliers. Section 232 specifically allows tariffs on goods that threaten national security, while Section 301 can be used to impose tariffs on countries that act against U.S. interests.
SCOTUS Hears Helms-Burton Cases Targeting Cuba’s Seized Properties
On February 23, the U.S. Supreme Court heard two high-stakes cases brought by ExxonMobil and Havana Docks Company, both seeking billions of dollars in compensation for properties seized by Fidel Castro’s government in 1959. Before the Cuban revolution, U.S. companies controlled about 90 percent of Cuba’s electricity and telephone systems and held major stakes in mining, sugar production, oil refineries, and storage facilities. After 1959, these properties were nationalized and placed under state control.
The Havana Docks Company filed its lawsuit in 2019 against four cruise lines: Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Carnival, and MSC. It seeks a total compensation of $440 million, arguing that the cruise lines “trafficked” in property that it owned by bringing tourists to the Havana Cruise Port Terminal from 2016 to 2019. However, in a joint court filing, the cruise lines argued that they acted lawfully and were following the Obama administration's lead, which encouraged travel to Cuba starting in 2016.
ExxonMobil filed the other case seeking more than $1 billion in compensation from CIMEX, a Cuban state-owned firm, for oil and gas assets seized in 1960. Exxon has asked for the reversal of a lower court’s 2024 decision that found Cuban state-owned enterprises may invoke foreign sovereign immunity, a doctrine under U.S. law that protects foreign governments and their entities from most lawsuits in U.S. courts. The central question is whether Congress authorized an exception to those protections for claims involving property seized by Cuba’s government.
It is not entirely clear how the justices would resolve the Havana Docks case, but they seemed inclined to allow the case to move forward with their lawsuit against the cruise lines. In Exxon’s case, the Court appeared more divided, with several justices questioning whether Congress clearly intended to strip Cuban state-owned companies of their traditional immunity protections. A decision in both cases is expected by the end of June.
Convoy Announces Plan to Reach Havana by March
The Nuestra America Convoy to Cuba (NACC), a humanitarian aid initiative, announced plans to reach Havana by March 21, 2026. Originally organized as a flotilla mission, the effort shifted to the broader term “convoy” to reflect its expansion beyond ships to include an international coalition of individuals and organizations coordinating humanitarian assistance. The coalition includes Progressive International, CODEPINK, and the People’s Forum, among others. Organizers describe the effort as a response to concerns about a potential humanitarian collapse amid deteriorating conditions.
At this time, the location and date of the convoy’s departure have not been specified. The convoy is urging participants to bring critical supplies. Organizers have provided a list that includes food items such as grains, canned goods, and baby food, as well as medical supplies, including pain relievers and first aid kits. Participants are expected to deliver donations to a designated collection point, though the exact coordinates have not yet been announced.
US Deports Cubans with Criminal Records to the Island
Despite the worsening humanitarian crisis on the island, the US continues to deport Cubans to the island, removing at least six Cubans with alleged criminal records in February. Historically, such deportations were rare because Cuba’s government had refused to accept the return of nationals with criminal convictions.
In a post on X, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stated that “under the Trump administration, these repatriation flights are occurring in record numbers.” Since 2023, the U.S. has conducted approximately one deportation flight to Cuba per month. As CEDA Executive Director María José Espinosa said in El País, “The fact that the recent flight included people with records of serious crimes suggests a possible shift—whether temporary or strategic—in Cuba’s stance toward the migration negotiations between the two governments.”
Notably, there was no deportation flight in January, breaking the established pattern and potentially signaling friction in bilateral migration talks, particularly over the issue of returning criminal deportees. That tension may also reflect the sensitive circumstances surrounding this group: many had been held at the U.S. Naval Base at Guantánamo Bay before being transferred back to the U.S. mainland and then deported to Cuba, adding another politically charged dimension.
IN CUBA
Fire at Oil Refinery Amid Deepening Fuel Crisis
On February 13, a fire broke out at the Ñico López Refinery located in Havana, Cuba. According to a statement made by Cuba’s Ministry of Energy and Mines, the fire was quickly extinguished and did not spread to other areas. There were no injuries and the cause of the fire is currently under investigation. The Ministry affirmed that the refinery had resumed normal operations.
Currently, Cuba can produce only about one-third of its total fuel requirement, and less than 50 percent of the island’s thermoelectric plants work. With reports showing the island will run out of fuel in mid-March, Cuba’s government and some residents are trying to expand reliance on renewable energy sources like solar power, but such efforts have not come close to compensating for the shortfall from imported oil.
Cuba’s government continues to ration fuel for essential services. Authorities have cut transportation services, schools have reduced schedules, work weeks have been shortened, and essential services like hospitals have suffered staffing limits.
Sherritt Scales Back Cuba Operations Amid Fuel Shortages
On February 17, Sherritt International Corporation, a Canadian mining company, announced that it had reduced operations in its joint venture in Moa due to a fuel supply shortage. The company stated that a complete pause in mining operations is expected throughout the week, during which planned maintenance will take place. Sherritt explained that it received notice that planned fuel deliveries for Moa would not be fulfilled, and the timeline for the resumption of deliveries is unknown.
The fuel disruption comes as Sherritt has already been facing financial strain at its Moa operation, reporting a net loss of $15.8 million in the fourth quarter and a $65.7 million loss for 2025. Company leadership has acknowledged that recent performance has fallen below expectations and has launched a comprehensive turnaround plan to stabilize production and strengthen future results, though the ongoing fuel shortage may complicate those efforts.
CUBA’S FOREIGN RELATIONS
Central American Governments Withdraw from Cuban Medical Program
On February 10, the Guatemalan Ministry of Health announced the termination of its agreement with the Cuban Medical Brigade. This comes after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Department of State would pursue visa restrictions against Central American government officials and their family members who participated in the program.
Officials describe the decision as a result of "technical analysis" intended to strengthen Guatemala’s public health system and prioritize local medical staff. The brigade consists of 412 medical personnel, including 333 doctors, who primarily work in primary care, hospitals, and comprehensive maternal and childcare centers. Many of them serve vulnerable Indigenous communities in rural and underserved areas. According to a letter sent by Mariheta Cutiño Rodríguez, the head of the Cuban Medical Missions, the first group of 10 Cuban doctors is scheduled to leave on February 24.
On February 24, Honduras also announced its withdrawal from the program, calling it a foreign policy decision. The government expects a total of 128 Cuban doctors to leave Honduras after serving there for the past two years.
The second Trump administration has urged countries participating in Cuba’s foreign medical missions to withdraw, citing concerns over forced labor practices. Several countries, including Italy’s southern Calabria region, have resisted growing pressure. They argue that Cuban doctors remain necessary to keep essential hospitals operating.
Venezuela Removes Cuban Security Forces
According to Reuters, a combination of Cuban security advisers and doctors has left Venezuela under the administration of interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Prior to the removal of Nicolás Maduro, Cuba had deployed thousands of Cuban doctors, nurses, and security personnel to Venezuela in exchange for petroleum exports to Cuba. It remains unclear whether personnel are being forced to leave, departing on their own, or being summoned to return to Cuba.
This development comes as the Trump administration pushes Venezuela to sever ties with Cuba, resulting in the suspension of oil shipments to the island following Maduro’s ousting. Despite these changes, interim President Rodríguez stated during a call with Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel that both countries remain committed to their historic cooperation and continued partnership.
International Community Steps Up to Aid Cuba
A statement released by Mexico’s government confirmed it is sending a second shipment of humanitarian aid to Cuba, scheduled to arrive on February 28. The two Mexican navy ships carry a total of 1,193 tons of supplies, including 1,078 tons of beans and powdered milk, 92 tons of beans, and 23 tons of additional food items.
Similarly, the Spanish government announced that it will send humanitarian aid to Cuba through the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). The agency will channel one million euros worth of supplies through the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Officials have not specified arrival timelines.
On February 23, Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand announced Canada is preparing an assistance plan in response to the humanitarian crisis on the island, but she did not provide further details. Separately, reports surfaced that a Chinese-owned tanker with Russian fuel was headed to Cuba, though the Russian Embassy in Cuba later denied those claims.
Recommended Reading, Listening & Viewing:
Listen | NPR: The U.S., Cuba, and the people caught between
Listen | Americas Quarterly Podcast: Cuba on the Brink
Listen | Pod Save the World: AOC on the World Stage, Trump Starves Cuba
Read | El País: Trump’s plans for Cubans in the US: ‘Maybe they want to go back. They’re going to have that choice’
Read | The New York Times: A New U.S. Blockade Is Strangling Cuba
Read | WIRED:Life in Cuba Under Trump’s Pressure Campaign: No Electricity, No Oil, and Impossible Choices
Read | Foreign Policy: Trump’s Cuba Policy Is Backing Mexico Into a Corner
Read | Foreign Policy: Cuba Isn’t Headed for Collapse
Read | The Conversation: Cuba has survived 66 years of US-led embargoes. Will Trump’s blockade break it now?
Read | Responsible Statecraft: Is Rubio backing off Cuba regime change for his own political good?
Read | The Nation: Opposing Trump’s Cruel Assault on the Cuban People
Listen | The New York Times: After Venezuela, Is Cuba Next?
Read | El País: The sinking of Cuba: ‘We are a sacrificial altar’
Watch | CBS: Cuban refugees remember journey to U.S. and rebuilding their lives
Read | El País: Being retired in an exhausted Cuba: ‘You can’t tell people we’re going to live off what we produce. What on earth do we produce?’
Read | Euronews:Cuba postponed its annual cigar fair due to fuel shortages
