What Is the Plan for Cuba and Who Pays the Price?

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The US is escalating what amounts to a full-scale economic pressure campaign against Cuba, one designed to force political change. But as Washington tightens the screws, the humanitarian consequences are unfolding in real time on an island already pushed to the brink.

After President Trump issued an executive order imposing tariffs on any country directly or indirectly exporting oil to Cuba, Mexico appears, for now, to have agreed to the terms of the US, while continuing to ship humanitarian aid. Cuba has not received a new shipment of oil since Mexico’s last delivery in December. Chile has also announced it will send humanitarian aid to Cuba, though the scope and timeline of the aid are unclear.

Cuba's staunchest allies have responded with limited assistance. China has largely confined its response to statements and modest humanitarian aid. Russia announced on February 12 that fuel shipments were imminent, but as of this writing, no public information has indicated that any shipments are en route or have arrived. Some estimates suggest Cuba has only days of oil remaining, although Senior Research Fellow at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute Jorge Piñon told the Cuba Study Group that he places the timeline at four to six weeks.

Meanwhile, the political theater continues. In a rare, two-hour press conference on February 5, Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel railed against U.S. pressure, alternating between familiar revolutionary rhetoric, vague signals of openness to dialogue with Washington, and Cuba’s preparation for a “state of war.” The messaging stood in stark contrast to the island's daily reality, where fuel shortages, blackouts, and food insecurity are intensifying. 

Two days later, the government announced emergency energy conservation measures. Schools have shifted schedules. Transportation services are curtailed. Fuel is redirected toward imports and exports. Remote work has been encouraged. Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva emphasized continued investment in solar parks, a point echoed by President Díaz-Canel in his recent press conference. These projects are backed in part by China. But solar expansion is not happening at a scale even close to what’s needed to solve an immediate fuel collapse. 

The tourism sector, already battered by years of crisis and still not recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels, is beginning to shut down after Cuba’s government told airlines they would not be able to refuel on the island. Hotels are consolidating guests. Canadian airlines have canceled flights and made plans to evacuate roughly 3,000 tourists. Russia is preparing to fly out its nationals and suspend operations.

The humanitarian warnings are growing louder. Pope Leo XIV issued a statement encouraging the US and Cuba to engage in real dialogue to avoid more violence and suffering, and the UN has warned of “potential humanitarian collapse,” issuing a statement on February 13, reiterating UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk’s call on all nations to lift unilateral sectoral measures against Cuba. A coalition of progressive advocacy groups announced plans to sail to Cuba next month in hopes of breaking through the blockade and delivering aid via a flotilla.

The U.S. Embassy in Havana issued a security alert citing prolonged outages affecting water, refrigeration, communications, and basic services. Amid the U.S. pressure campaign, Washington also announced $6 million in humanitarian assistance, marginal compared to the scale of need, with some estimates finding 89 percent of Cuban families living in extreme poverty. The US also delivered four shipments of aid earlier this year, with U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Mike Hammer visiting communities in some of the most impoverished areas in Cuba whose conditions were worsened by Hurricane Melissa.

And yet, in Washington and South Florida, some lawmakers continue to push for even harsher measures. Proposals include suspending federal licenses that allow U.S. exporters to sell goods to Cuba’s small private sector and individuals, ending commercial flights, and cutting off remittances. These policies would not target the Cuban state alone. They would further squeeze ordinary Cubans, already rationing fuel, food, and electricity.

In response, former Congressman Joe García, who represented Florida's 26th congressional district from 2013 to 2015, has noted that the lawmakers overlook those most directly affected: Cubans at risk of deportation or already in detention in the US. That critique echoes a broader frustration recently voiced by a group of Latino organizations in Florida, which publicly rebuked a statement about the Super Bowl made by Representative María Elvira Salazar (FL-27), and urged her to focus less on symbolic cultural battles and more on the urgent needs of her constituents, including immigrant families facing deportation and economic insecurity.

This is not happening in a vacuum. Cuba’s crisis is long-standing and structural.  The consequences are visible not only on the island: Cubans are now the third-largest asylum-seeking nationality in the world, only behind Venezuela and Sudan.

And for many who fled, the hardship did not end when they left.

More than 13 percent of Cuba’s population has left, and many have sought refuge in the US through legal pathways that have since been rescinded. At least 600,000 Cubans now face the risk of losing status, detention, or deportation. The US continues monthly deportation flights to Havana. Others are expelled to Mexico, where they lack legal status, work authorization, or meaningful access to asylum in an already overwhelmed system.

These policies are reshaping lives in concrete ways. In January, a 55-year-old Cuban migrant, Geraldo Lunas Campos, died in ICE custody at a detention facility in Texas after being physically restrained by guards; an autopsy ruled the death a homicide due to asphyxia. Among those deported are Cubans who arrived decades ago through legal programs. In Mexico, Doctors of the World documented the case of Raúl, a 62-year-old Cuban deported after more than forty years in the US. He arrived in Villahermosa alone, disoriented, and in severe physical and psychological distress, wandering the streets for days before receiving medical and mental health care. He had no network, no income, and no clear path forward.

If regime change is the goal, as some in Washington openly state, then what is the plan? And at what human cost?

Representative Jim McGovern (MD-2) has introduced a bill to end the statutory basis of the U.S. embargo. McGovern’s message is simple: the Cuban people, not politicians in Washington, should determine their own future. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) has also condemned the crisis and compared the devastation to Gaza, calling it a new “era of depravity.”

Others argue for calibrated engagement. Paul Johnson of the U.S. Agriculture Coalition for Cuba has called for investment licenses tied to agricultural cooperation, noting that meaningful change must begin with shared priorities. Cuba is also suffering through an agricultural crisis due to the complete collapse in domestic production of essential food that experts say is much worse than the collapse during the “Special Period.”

Rumors swirl of backchannel negotiations, with some speculating that Alejandro Castro Espín, who played a role in the Obama-era thaw, has been quietly involved. But Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío recently stated plainly: “There is no dialogue at any level,” although earlier remarks from President Díaz-Canel indicated that “technical contacts” on migration remain, as demonstrated by a deportation flight that landed in Havana on February 9.

If conversations about Cuba’s political future are happening, Cubans themselves do not appear meaningfully at the table—not independent voices on the island, not civil society, and not the families bearing the brunt of both internal repression and U.S. immigration crackdowns. Cubans are not abstractions in a geopolitical chess match. They are the ones living the consequences of decisions made in Washington and Havana alike. 

Prominent Cuban opposition leader Manuel Cuesta Morúa told EFE that the US can play a supportive role if Cubans open negotiations among themselves, but cautioned against ceding sovereignty or allowing external actors to define Cuba’s democratic future. Roberto Veiga González of Cuba Próxima has warned that change cannot be “a pact of elites.” It must involve the people.

History has not shown that broad economic strangulation produces stable democratic outcomes. Years of repression to dissent, most visibly after the July 11, 2021 protests that led to more than 1,500 detentions, have weakened the possibility of spontaneous mass mobilization. Roughly 1,000 political prisoners remain behind bars and detentions continue. Just this week, two influencers who lead El4tico, social media accounts critical of Cuba’s government, were detained and are now awaiting trial.

Prominent historians and reporters inside and outside Cuba who have covered the country for decades are noting that this moment feels different. CNN Havana Bureau Chief Patrick Oppman expressed he was surprised by how quickly and widely this crisis has struck, noting, “Frankly, things feel very different to me at the moment.” Ada Ferrer, author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book “Cuba, an American History,” told The New York Times, “This time...feels different.” But even if change comes, political transformation that is not led by Cubans themselves raises serious questions about legitimacy, sustainability, and the risk of prolonged U.S. entanglement.

The US may be betting that pressure alone will tip the scales. The Trump administration appears willing to gamble on collapse and call it strategy. But collapse is not a policy, it is a human condition. It is borne not by governments, but by ordinary people fighting for survival each day. Economic implosion does not neatly translate into political transition. More often, it produces mass displacement, regional instability, and deeper humanitarian needs. If the objective is stability, accountability, or democratic change, then pressure absent a credible diplomatic or humanitarian off-ramp risks compounding the very crisis it purports to solve. A strategy defined solely by escalation leaves little room for shaping what comes next.

US-CUBA NEWS

US Announces $6 Million in Aid for Cuba

On February 5, the U.S. Department of State announced $6 million in humanitarian assistance for Cuba. Under Secretary for Foreign Assistance Jeremy Lewin stated that the supplies would include beans, rice, pasta, cans of tuna, solar lamps, and other basic necessities. The announcement confirmed that distributions would take place through the Catholic Church and Caritas Cuba, the Catholic Church’s official charitable organization that coordinates humanitarian and social assistance programs across the country. However, ongoing blackouts across the island complicate the preparation of the food items that require cooking. While these shipments provide short-term relief, they address an extremely small portion of the broader humanitarian and economic crisis facing the country.

The announcement follows four humanitarian aid shipments from the US valued at $3 million, also delivered through Caritas Cuba. The most recent shipment arrived on January 30 and contained 588 food kits and 585 hygiene kits. A third shipment arrived on January 28, while the two earlier flights arrived on January 14 and 16. According to Caritas Cuba, distribution follows vulnerability-based selection criteria with priority given to single mothers with young children, the elderly, people with disabilities, and individuals with reduced or no mobility.

Cubans Detained at Guantánamo Deported to Havana

In the latest development of an extraordinary chain of events, roughly 50 Cuban men detained at Guantánamo Bay Naval Base were ultimately deported to Havana. The first group of 22 men arrived at the base on December 14, followed by additional arrivals on December 19 and several more flights in early January. Authorities housed the men in a detention facility previously used to hold individuals suspected of ties to al-Qaeda after a reported maintenance issue at their initial barracks.

Deporting Cuban nationals directly from the naval base to the island poses logistical and political challenges. Cuba does not permit flights from the base into sovereign Cuban territory, and the US operates only one deportation flight to Cuba per month. In this case, several Cubans held at the base were effectively “deported” by being transferred through a guarded gate separating the base from a Cuban military-controlled zone. A minefield lies between the perimeter and the rest of the island.

On February 6, family members reported that all but one of the detained men had been transferred to a detention facility in Mississippi; authorities sent the remaining individual to Houston for medical treatment. Three days later, on February 9, officials formally repatriated the men on a flight to Cuba alongside other Cuban nationals being held in detention facilities across the US.

IN CUBA

Airlines Halt Service as Cuba Runs Out of Jet Fuel 

On February 8, Cuba’s government issued a formal notice to airlines and pilots warning that jet fuel would no longer be available for refueling at nine airports between February 10 and March 11. The announcement marks a dramatic escalation in the island’s deepening fuel crisis, as authorities move to conserve dwindling supplies for what they describe as essential services.

Canadian carriers including Air Canada, Air Transat, and WestJet have suspended flights to Cuba, citing the lack of guaranteed fuel. The airlines began sending empty planes to evacuate approximately 3,000 tourists on February 9. Russian aviation authorities followed on February 11, announcing that the country’s two airlines servicing Cuba would operate outbound-only evacuation flights before suspending service. According to Russia’s tourism authorities, roughly 4,000 Russian citizens are currently on the island. Germany has also issued an advisory against all non-essential travel to Cuba.

The suspension of commercial travel further threatens one of Cuba’s most fragile economic pillars. Tourism has long served as a lifeline for the island, yet visitor numbers have fallen nearly 70 percent since 2018. In 2025, Cuba received more than 754,000 visitors from Canada, 110,000 from the US, over 56,000 from Mexico, and 46,000 from Spain. For many Cubans, particularly those working in the private sector, tourism income is essential. 

Cuba Tightens Energy Rationing to Protect Essential Services

On February 7, Cuba’s Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva outlined urgent measures aimed at slowing the island’s rapidly deepening energy crisis, which officials say U.S. tariffs announced on January 29 have exacerbated. Pérez-Oliva said that Cuba’s government will prioritize remaining fuel supplies for essential services and critical economic activities that generate foreign currency. These protections include food production, electricity generation, and healthcare, particularly emergency services, maternity wards, and cancer treatment programs.

To conserve fuel, Cuba’s government announced sweeping restrictions. Much of the public sector has shifted to a four-day workweek. Fuel purchases have been capped at 20 liters per transaction through a new ticketing platform. Interprovincial bus and train services have been reduced, some tourist establishments are closed, school days are shorter, and universities have scaled back mandatory in-person attendance.

Speaking at a February 5 press conference, Cuba’s President Díaz-Canel urged Cubans to prepare for additional sacrifices as oil supplies dwindle. While officials describe the measures as necessary and temporary, many citizens question how much more they can endure. “We’re living as best we can,” said Cristina Díaz, a mother of two in Havana. For many on the island, daily life is already defined by rationing, blackouts, and long lines and the latest restrictions suggest even tougher days may lie ahead.

The Cuban Peso Continues to Depreciate as Official Inflation Slows

In December, Cuba’s government legalized the use of the dollar and other foreign currencies for domestic transactions. DevTech's Cuba Exchange Rate Dashboard reported that the dollar reached the 460 peso mark in January 2026 and quickly increased thereafter. On February 10, roughly two months later, the U.S. dollar surpassed the 500 peso mark in the informal market, according to El Toque’s tracking. 

This extreme devaluation reflects the growing economic crisis on the island. Experts link the peso's depreciation to the end of Venezuelan supplies of oil to the island and the threat of U.S. tariffs on any country that imports oil to Cuba. Last year, the dollar maintained an upward trend for much of the year, but did not surpass the 500-peso mark.

Cuba’s National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) recently reported that inflation in Cuba dropped to over 12.52 percent in January, down from 14.52 percent in December. This rate remains very high and demonstrates a persistent inflationary pressure. Inflation reached an all-time high of 77.30 percent in December of 2021 and averaged 26.39 percent from 2005 until 2026.

Cuba’s Government Detains Prominent Influencers

On February 12, an official statement from the Holguin Prosecutor’s office confirmed that two influencers, Ernesto Ricardo Medina and Kamil Zaya Pérez, are being investigated for the crimes of "propaganda against the constitutional order and incitement to commit crimes.” Medina and Pérez lead El4tico, a social media page that has gained an audience through creating content critical of Cuba’s government.  

Following a habeas corpus petition filed by activist Yanet Rodríguez Sánchez, a hearing was held on February 12 at the Holguin Provincial People’s Court regarding Medina and Pérez’s case. Cuban authorities confirmed that both individuals will remain in detention. NGOs and activists confirm that Cuban authorities prevented them and Sánchez from attending the hearing.

There has been no announcement regarding a trial or possible prosecution request for sentencing the influencers . Under the Cuban Penal Code, penalties for the crimes for which they are accused range from 18 months to eight years in prison. 

CUBA’S FOREIGN RELATIONS

Mexico Sends 814 Tons of Humanitarian Aid to Cuba

During her morning conference on February 6, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexico planned to send humanitarian aid to Cuba, and on February 8, two Mexican Navy ships departed from the port of Veracruz with more than 814 tons of food supplies. One vessel carried liquid milk, meat, cookies, beans, rice, and other food items, as well as hygiene products, while the second carried more than 277 tons of powdered milk. The aid arrived on February 12. Mexico’s government said additional shipments of more than 1,500 tons of powdered milk and beans are “still pending.”

This shipment of humanitarian aid comes despite the recent executive order signed by President Trump that imposed tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba. This directly targets third countries that sustain Cuba’s energy supplies, primarily Mexico, one of Cuba’s only remaining suppliers, and the only country that has shipped oil to the island in recent months. President Sheinbaum has positioned Mexico to aid in “opening doors for dialogue to develop” between Cuba and the US.

Chile Announces Humanitarian Aid to Cuba

On February 12, Chile announced that it would send humanitarian aid to Cuba through the Chile Fund against Hunger and Poverty of its International Cooperation Agency for Development. Foreign Affairs Minister Alberto van Klaveren elaborated that the aid will be delivered through UN agencies. No further details have been released at this time. This announcement comes as Chile’s current President, Gabriel Boric, is nearing the end of his term. His successor has indicated his administration will be far less friendly to Cuba’s government.

Chile’s announcement was not well received by South Florida Cuban American lawmakers who have been urging more hard line policy against Cuba. Representative Carlos Giménez (FL-28) wrote on X, “From the United States Congress, we denounce the President of #Chile's support for the military dictatorship in #Cuba.” The episode underscores the widening divide in the hemisphere over how to respond to Cuba’s worsening humanitarian crisis.

Nicaragua Eliminates Visa-Free Entry for Cuban Citizens

On February 8, Nicaragua’s government announced the immediate elimination of visa-free entry to Nicaragua for Cuban citizens. Director General of Migration and Foreigners Juan Emilio Rivas Benítez did not provide an explanation for the change. This development effectively eliminates a key route for irregular Cuban migration to the US.

Typically, Cubans would fly to Nicaragua to meet with smugglers who would help move them through Central America and Mexico, eventually reaching the U.S. southern border. Manuel Orozco, director of Migration, Remittances, and Development Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, believes this is Nicaragua's attempt to avoid repercussions from the Trump administration during a time of increased U.S. pressure in the hemisphere.

Nicaragua unexpectedly lifted visa requirements for Cubans in 2021. Many Cubans utilized the new policy flying directly to Nicaragua and then traveling north through Central America and Mexico to the U.S. border. This caused the number of Cubans arriving at the US-Mexico border to skyrocket, marking one of the most significant migration shifts since the end of the “wet foot, dry foot” policy.

Russia and China Signal Support for Cuba as Fuel Crisis Deepens

Amid Cuba’s worsening energy crisis, traditional allies Russia and China have publicly signaled their willingness to assist the island as U.S. pressure intensifies but have taken little material action. On February 8, a Russian cargo plane arrived at a military airfield near Havana, Cuba. The plane is operated by Aviacon Zitotrans, a Russian government-affiliated airline that has transported military cargo in the past. The shipment's contents are unknown, but the aircraft can carry up to 50 tons of cargo or up to 200 passengers. The same aircraft was documented flying to Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba in late October 2025.

On February 9, Russia’s government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Russia is currently discussing solutions with Cuba to “provide whatever assistance [it] can.” Russia has also stated it will soon send crude oil and refined products as humanitarian aid. Similarly, on February 10, during a press briefing in Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jin Lian confirmed China “will do what it can” to assist Havana and condemned the actions taken against the island. No official plans have been confirmed.

Construction Draws Thousands of Cubans to Guyana

As oil production in Guyana is set to increase to about 2 million barrels per day over the next five years, infrastructure companies are turning to Cuban migrants as a labor source. Official figures show a sharp increase in the number of Cubans migrating to Guyana over the past five years. In 2025, 135,000 Cubans were granted legal status compared to more than 800 in 2020.

Guyana has not yet introduced a comprehensive migration policy. According to Guyana’s Minister of Labour, Joseph Hamilton, work permits are currently being approved on a case-by-case basis at the request of contractors. Guyana’s Vice President, Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo, asserts that migrant rights will be further discussed during the future constitutional reform process. One of the measures under consideration is granting residency without voting rights. This would ensure migrants are allowed to live and work legally in Guyana while reserving voting rights for Guyanese citizens. 
Recommended Reading, Listening & Viewing: 

Read | Associated Press: What a reporter found when she returned to Cuba after last trip 3 years ago 

Listen | Wall Street Journal: Is Cuba Next? Inside Washington’s Push for Regime Change

Read | El País (Spanish): Carlos M. Rodríguez Arechavaleta: “No creo que haya un momento previo más difícil para la élite cubana” 

Read | WIRED: Public Health Workers Are Quitting Over Assignments to Guantánamo 

Read | Foreign Policy: What a Deal Between Trump and Cuba Might Look Like

Read | The Independent: Anger and anguish spread across Cuba as it learns of Trump's tariff threat on those who provide oil

Read | Financial Times: Cuban doctors’ departure from Venezuela saps Havana of vital revenue

Read | Chatham House: How far will Trump push Cuba?

Read | TIME: Rolling Blackouts, Hospital Shortages: How the U.S. Oil Blockade Is Impacting Cuba

Read | Journal of Democracy: With Maduro Gone, Is Cuba Ready to Fall?

Read | El País: Cubans also want an amnesty for their political prisoner

Read | The Conversation: Cuba is facing an economic and social catastrophe, and not entirely because of Donald Trump

Read | The Economist: Cuba’s fate may be in Marco Rubio’s hands

Read | Responsible Statecraft: A deal that Cuba (and Trump) cannot refuse?