With the midterm elections just days away, the Trump administration has renewed its rhetoric around Cuba. Administration officials have signaled urgency around bringing about political and economic change to the island, though the rhetoric has yet to be matched by clear new action. Speaking at a campaign rally in Florida last week, President Trump said: “Actually, what we're going to do with Cuba is, we're going to come back from Iran. Those beautiful ships will pass Cuba. We'll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast. They'll raise up their hands. And then we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Cuba announced on X that Mission Chief Mike Hammer had met with General Frank Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, adding: “Much to discuss regarding Cuba.”
The administration has also continued to signal its interest in securing a break within Cuba’s political establishment that could facilitate a transition, following a model similar to what Washington has pursued in Venezuela with Delcy Rodríguez. Secretary of State Rubio recently wrote on X: “To those who seek to create positive change in Cuba - now is the time. The disappointment of failed promises, corruption, and the privileged lives of only a few; seize this opportunity to create the change you desire through a discrete partnership with the CIA.” The CIA subsequently published a Spanish-language guide explaining how one could make covert contact with the agency. Cuba’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, dismissed the effort as “desperate.”
The grandson and close confidant of Raúl Castro, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, has been floated as a potential interlocutor and has signaled willingness to negotiate with President Trump. Notably, Mr. Rodríguez Castro was not called out in U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz’s speech at the UN criticizing Cuba’s government.
Washington’s aggressive approach has also played out on the international stage. On October 28, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) approved its annual resolution calling for an end to the U.S. embargo on Cuba. While it still passed with overwhelming support, more countries voted against the resolution than in previous years. The vote followed accusations by Cuba’s Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, that Washington had threatened countries with visa restrictions and trade and economic sanctions if they supported the resolution. During the debate, Mr. Rodríguez Parrilla and Mr. Waltz clashed, with the confrontation between the delegations quickly circulating on social media. In a widely shared video, Waltz told the Cuban delegation to “Back up,” prompting the response, “You’re a liar” from Mr. Rodríguez Parrilla.
The renewed focus on Cuba also comes as Republicans face an uncertain electoral environment in Florida, where Cuban American voters have traditionally been an important Republican constituency. A new FIU poll found that only 28 percent of Cubans in South Florida support the Republican candidate for Senate, with 44 percent remaining undecided. In the gubernatorial race, 37 percent support the Republican candidate and 39 percent are undecided. At the same time, support for a hard-line approach toward Havana remains strong: 77 percent of Cuban Americans in South Florida support a policy of maximum pressure on Cuba’s government. However, interviews with Cuban American voters accompanying coverage of the poll captured frustration with repeated promises of change in Cuba, with respondents identifying the economy, healthcare, and immigration as more immediate priorities.
The political stakes extend to races in Florida where Cuban American voters remain vital to many elections. On October 19, a Miami judge issued a state arrest warrant for former President Raúl Castro over his alleged role in the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue. The warrant carries limited legal weight, as federal charges had already been unveiled in May, giving Florida’s attorney general, who is campaigning to retain his position, another opportunity to highlight his position on Cuba as Republicans face electoral pressure in South Florida.
A September poll put Representative María Elvira Salazar (FL-27) just one point ahead of Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, 47 percent to 46 percent. With polling showing that 76 percent of Cuban Americans in South Florida disapprove of the Trump administration's deportations of Cubans with no criminal record, Ms. Salazar, who won by approximately 20 points in 2024, released an advertisement warning President Trump that his immigration enforcement has “gone too far.”
As those in the US focus on election day, conditions inside Cuba continue to deteriorate. On October 16, the island recorded its worst level of electricity generation in years. A fire at the Ernesto Guevara thermoelectric plant in Mayabeque on October 16 forced another generating unit offline, leaving nine of Cuba’s 16 thermoelectric units out of service. The disruption pushed projected peak-hour blackouts to 75.5 percent of electricity demand—the highest level recorded since Cuba’s government began publishing electricity data in 2022.
The humanitarian consequences extend beyond the energy crisis. Reports from Baracoa describe a mosquito infestation at a local hospital, compounding an already severe public health crisis. Across the country, more than 98,500 patients, including approximately 12,000 children, are reportedly awaiting postponed surgeries, while access to lifesaving medicine remains near impossible.
The gap between Washington’s political ambitions and the realities facing people on the island is increasingly difficult to ignore. A new poll from AmericasBarometer of Cubans on the island found that 77 percent want economic changes implemented as soon as possible, even before a political transition is in place, demonstrating a sharp contrast to the aspirations of the Cuban American diaspora in Florida. While policymakers, academics, and diaspora coalitions debate what a post-transition Cuba could look like, the island’s economic order is already changing.
In a new collaboration with the Bologna Initiative for Sanctions Relief, CEDA’s Lydia Mackey and Josefine Petrick examine how Cuba’s economic landscape is already shifting, even as its political system remains unchanged. U.S. policies are restricting access to traditional sources of fuel and foreign investment while creating new opportunities for American businesses to supply the private sector and pursue investments in strategic industries. As foreign companies retreat and U.S. investors seek opportunities in key sectors, control over capital, trade, and strategic assets is beginning to shift.
These changes raise critical questions about who will benefit from Cuba’s economic transformation and how the emerging economic order could shape the island’s political future. Without greater transparency and accountability, and a shift in U.S. policy, the deals taking shape today risk entrenching economic and political power in ways that could make a more equitable and democratic transition harder to achieve. Read the commentary.
U.S.-CUBA NEWS
Florida Issues State Arrest Warrant for Raúl Castro
On October 19, Miami Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan signed a state arrest warrant for Cuba’s former President Raúl Castro on a charge of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder. The case concerns the February 24, 1996, shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based organization that searched for Cuban rafters at sea. The incident killed three U.S. citizens and one U.S. permanent resident. Prosecutors allege that Mr. Castro, who at the time served as Cuba’s defense minister, authorized the attack and that intelligence agents operating in Florida supplied the group’s flight information. The state charge follows a federal indictment unsealed in May over the same incident. Florida Attorney General Uthmeier said the state case could restrict Mr. Castro’s travel to countries with U.S. extradition agreements, but acknowledged the difficulty of bringing him before a court.
Cuban-American lawmakers welcomed the warrant. Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejected the warrant, describing the announcement as politically motivated and tied to the upcoming midterm elections. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also condemned the action, calling the accusation an act of vengeance by Miami’s anti-Cuba lobby.
Cubans Among Those Deported to the Central African Republic
On October 22, a flight carrying 78 third-country nationals, including Cubans, departed Alexandria, Louisiana, for Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic (CAR). CiberCuba reported that there were 85 Cubans aboard, although this number has not yet been corroborated. According to deportee Eric González Peña’s account, passengers were shackled at their wrists and ankles and learned they were being sent to Africa only after boarding, without being told which country. His family went nearly 60 hours without knowing his whereabouts before he called from Bangui. Cubans deported there over the summer provided prepaid internet access cards so the new arrivals could contact relatives.
CAR agreed to accept third-country deportees under an April agreement with Washington, and at least four Cubans were among those sent there in late July. Members of that group described being unable to leave their accommodation without documents and receiving no advance notice of their destination. Other deportees in CAR have reported police detention and attempted extortion, while some returned to their home countries despite fearing persecution or torture there. One Cuban deported in July, Arístides Fernández García, left on October 19 with assistance from the International Organization for Migration and reunited with his family in Bolivia, becoming one of the few documented cases of a deportee leaving CAR.
Fewer Countries Back UN Resolution Calling for an End to the U.S. Embargo on Cuba
On October 28, UNGA approved its annual resolution calling for an end to the U.S. embargo on Cuba, with 130 votes in favor, 17 against, and 25 abstentions. Support declined notably from 165 votes in favor, seven against, and 12 abstentions in 2025, following an intensified U.S. lobbying campaign. Chile, Honduras, and Peru were among the countries that abstained after supporting the resolution in previous years, while Colombia, Ecuador, and Costa Rica were among the countries that voted against, all for the first time.
During the October 27 deliberation, Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla and U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz clashed after Waltz criticized Cuba’s government, briefly interrupting proceedings. The confrontation followed Mr. Rodríguez Parrilla’s accusations that Washington had threatened countries with visa restrictions and trade and economic sanctions if they supported the resolution. Washington also hosted a panel on October 19 featuring Cuban dissidents who discussed human rights abuses, which Cuba’s UN Ambassador Ernesto Soberón denounced as a politically motivated use of UN facilities.
Calls to support the resolution came from former Caribbean leaders, religious organizations, and human rights experts. Former heads of government from the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) urged countries to vote in favor, arguing that the embargo violates international law. The United Church of Canada called on Canada to support the measure and help secure fuel and essential supplies, while independent UN human rights experts warned that expanded sanctions are deepening Cuba’s humanitarian crisis.
Sherritt Receives U.S. License for Moa Mining Operations
On October 20, Canadian mining company Sherritt International announced that the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s (USDT) Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had granted it a license to supply fuel, fuel oil, and sulfur to its Moa nickel and cobalt operations in Cuba. The license also permits Sherritt’s fuel supplier, banks, vessel operators, and insurers to provide the services needed for those deliveries. Sherritt expects its first fuel shipment in the fourth quarter of 2026 but has not disclosed the transport method. It must also obtain a second license before restarting production.
The authorization advances efforts to restore operations after expanded U.S. sanctions prompted Sherritt to suspend its participation in the joint venture in May and comes as two competing investor groups with U.S. backing seek control of the company. Gillon Capital, led by Trump ally and Republican donor Ray Washburne, proposed acquiring a 55 percent controlling stake and faces a competing offer from a Glencore-backed consortium. Washburne’s intervention reportedly helped secure the fuel license, and Sherritt confirmed that it coordinated its applications with Gillon. Cuba’s government has expressed willingness to maintain the partnership under U.S. investment. The license gives Washburne’s bid momentum, although the acquisition still requires further approvals and financing. The development illustrates how U.S. sanctions and licensing decisions are shaping the competition for strategic assets in Cuba, potentially creating opportunities for American investors even as restrictions limit the involvement of established foreign partners.
US Proposes Restrictions on Technology Investments in Cuba
On October 26, USDT published a proposed rule that would prohibit certain U.S. investments in sensitive technology sectors in Cuba and other designated “countries of concern,” while requiring investors to notify USDT of other covered transactions. The proposal implements the Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security (COINS) Act, enacted in December 2025. The act covers semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, high-performance computing, hypersonic systems, and biotechnology. The proposed requirements are not yet in effect, and public comments will be due on December 7.
The inclusion of biotechnology is particularly relevant to Cuba’s pharmaceutical industry and its efforts to attract foreign investment. Existing U.S. sanctions already restrict financing and transactions with Cuba, complicating access to foreign capital and payments for imported equipment and inputs needed for pharmaceutical research and production. The proposed prohibitions include investments involving specified biological engineering activities, pharmaceutical compounds, and sequencing technologies. USDT acknowledges that biotechnology restrictions could create public health risks and is seeking comments on narrowing their scope. For Cuba, the final definitions will determine how far this additional investment restriction extends into civilian development, alongside existing U.S. sanctions.
Cuba Accuses US of Allowing Armed Groups to Operate with Impunity
On October 19, Cuba’s authorities renewed accusations that the US was allowing supporters of a February speedboat incursion to operate with impunity, alleging that individuals in Florida supplied weapons, transportation, and training to provoke an uprising and U.S. intervention. Officials said their investigation now included confessions from detained participants who claimed they had trained on a Florida property owned by opposition leader Maritza Lugo Fernández, who denied involvement.
The case concerns a February 25 confrontation between a Florida-registered speedboat and Cuban Border Guards. Of the 10 people aboard, five were killed and five remain in custody facing terrorism charges according to Cuba’s authorities. Interior Ministry official Colonel Francisco Estrada Portales said that forensic examinations found the seized weapon and explosives operational. The alleged offenses can carry the death penalty, although prosecutors had not requested specific sentences. Despite investigative cooperation between Cuba and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), it remains unclear whether U.S. authorities will bring charges against alleged organizers in Florida.
IN CUBA
Cuba’s New Housing Law Takes Effect
A new housing law took effect in Cuba on October 21, advancing the opening of the real estate sector outlined in the government’s economic reforms announced in June. The change allows Cuban citizens and foreign permanent residents to own two homes, plus a designated vacation property. Previously, the general limit was one permanent home plus one vacation home. The law replaces legislation from 1988 and expands the role of private businesses, cooperatives, and real estate companies in housing construction and financing. It also protects designated family homes from seizure by creditors. For people aged 18-30, it provides for construction-material subsidies, loans, partial subsidies toward home purchases, tax benefits, and preferential access to housing. Those whose incomes cannot cover housing payments without sacrificing basic needs may receive the right to occupy state-owned housing without purchasing it.
Developers must contribute up to 20 percent of the homes they build for municipal allocation or make corresponding improvements to the surrounding neighborhood. These provisions establish a framework for future construction rather than announce new projects. Cuba completed just 5,493 homes in 2025, down 65.8 percent from 2023. Shortages of cement, steel, and other building materials, compounded by the electricity crisis, constrain efforts to reverse that decline. For ordinary Cubans, expanded ownership rights and financing options will offer limited relief unless investment also restores construction capacity and produces homes they can afford.
Ten Cuban Airports Extend Jet Fuel Shortage Notices Through November
Ten airports in Cuba have extended notices that aviation fuel will be unavailable through November 1. Notices initially began in February. The affected airports serve Havana, Varadero, Cienfuegos, Santa Clara, Camagüey, Cayo Coco, Holguín, Santiago de Cuba, Manzanillo, and Cayo Largo. The notices concern refueling availability rather than airport closures. To continue flying through these airports, planes can carry additional fuel from their departure airports, or arrange refueling stops in third countries depending on the route and aircraft.
Fuel shortages have contributed to flight suspensions and route cuts, reducing Cuba’s international air connections as its tourism industry contracts. Cuba received 477,707 international visitors in the first nine months of 2026, a decline of 65.1 percent compared with the same period in 2025, according to Cuba’s National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). Fewer flights also narrow travel options for families and constrain tourism earnings, one of Cuba’s principal sources of foreign currency.
Cuba Keeps Daylight Saving Time to Reduce Electricity Shortfalls
Cuba will retain daylight saving time through November 7, 2027, canceling the scheduled November return to standard time in order to avoid an additional evening electricity shortfall of 126 megawatts through reduced lighting demand and solar generation remaining available during peak hours. School and workplace times will move 30 minutes later from November 1 through March 14, 2027, to accommodate later sunrises. The decision reflects how deeply the electricity crisis is reshaping daily life.
CUBA'S FOREIGN RELATIONS
New Report Details Refugee Barriers for Cubans in Mexico
Cubans were Mexico’s largest group of applicants for refugee status in 2025, with 34,634 applicants, making up approximately 49 percent of the national total according to a new report by Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission (CNDH). The number rose from 18,344 in 2024, an increase of 89 percent. CNDH reported that many migrants already waiting in Mexico for U.S. entry appointments through CBP One turned to Mexico’s refugee system after U.S. policy changes disrupted their plans. The resulting demand overwhelmed the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR). Applicants in southern states, primarily Chiapas and Tabasco, must remain where they filed while their claims are processed, leaving many waiting for months before they can move elsewhere in Mexico.
CNDH also identified failures to explain to migrants their immigration status, the administrative proceedings affecting them, how to regularize their stay, and their right to apply for refugee status. These shortcomings complicate efforts to establish stable lives in a country many initially expected to transit.
Russia Donates Sunflower Oil for Food Assistance in Cuba
On October 16, Russia donated more than 750 metric tons of sunflower oil to support the United Nations World Food Programme’s (WFP) emergency food reserves in Cuba. The donation forms part of a $4 million Russian contribution for 2025-2026, financed by Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations. Russia’s Ambassador to Cuba Victor Koronelli said the supplies would support vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, and pregnant women. The delivery builds on more than 800 metric tons of sunflower oil donated by Russia through WFP in 2025. The sunflower oil donation provides a cooking staple and source of calories as food shortages and high prices limit Cubans’ access to adequate meals.
Belize Considers New Arrangements to Retain Cuban Medical Personnel
Belize announced it is reviewing options to retain Cuban medical professionals as negotiations with the US continue over its medical cooperation program. Foreign Affairs Chief Executive Officer Oscar Arnold said a resolution was approaching, without disclosing terms or a deadline. Options include restructuring the bilateral agreement or retaining personnel through individual contracts, work permits, or residency arrangements. Approximately 92 Cuban healthcare professionals serve in Belize, including in rural communities with staffing shortages. They remain on duty as negotiation discussions proceed. The review follows U.S. pressure to end agreements with Cuba's government due to allegations of poor labor conditions and unfair payment arrangements. Countries that the US identifies as financing the missions for two consecutive years could lose U.S. international assistance and military support.
Belize’s deliberations follow Jamaica’s rehiring of 157 Cuban healthcare workers under individual contracts after ending its bilateral program in March. Uruguay has also proposed paying Cuban health professionals directly while retaining its cooperation agreement. These alternatives could help Belize resist U.S. pressure to end the program while ensuring that Cuban personnel retain employment and that communities already facing staffing shortages retain access to care.
Recommended Reading, Listening & Viewing:
Watch | Wall Street Journal: We Went to Cuba to See How the Fuel Crisis Is Forcing Havana to Open Its Economy
Watch | CBS News: Inside Cuba's economic crisis
Read | Jamaica Observer: No lights, no friends: Cuban youth grapple with loneliness
Read | The Economist: Entrepreneurs in Cuba are snapping up American fuels
Read | Miami Herald: Cuba is, again, drumming up opposition to U.S. embargo. It’s all based on lies | Opinion
Read | The Economist: America makes waves in Cuba
Read | USA Today: As Cubans flee crisis, these nuns care for elders left behind
Read | Denisse Delgado: Cuban Migration and Remittances in Transition: Transnational Care Amid Crisis and Digitalization
Read | The Atlantic: The Collapse of Cuba
Read | CNN: Hell will freeze over before Havana gives in to Trump. But regular Cubans don’t have that long
Leer | OnCuba News: La Madonna de la Catedral, un encuentro entre la fe, el arte y la ciudad
