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In observance of the Thanksgiving holiday, our next brief will be published on December 4.
On November 3, Democrats delivered a resounding victory in the midterm elections, outperforming expectations to take control of both chambers of Congress by wide margins. The Democratic Party is projected to hold 254 seats in the House of Representatives and 55 seats in the Senate, with the possibility of additional seats as several races are still too close to call. Across the country, voters cited the Iran war, rising costs of living, inadequate access to healthcare, and immigration enforcement as their reasons for voting for Democrats. Democrats made historic gains, with approximately 67 percent of Latino voters supporting Democratic House candidates, compared with roughly one-third who backed Republicans—a reversal of much of the ground Republicans gained with Latino voters in 2024.
In South Florida, where Cuban Americans make up a large majority of the constituency, Republican Representatives María Elvira Salazar (FL-27) and Mario Díaz-Balart (FL-26) faced unexpectedly competitive re-election races. While approval among Cuban Americans of the Trump administration’s approach to Cuba remains high, both candidates held their seats by historically narrow margins: Rep. Díaz-Balart defeated Democrat Nicole Locklin 49.9 percent to 49.1 percent, a dramatic departure from his nearly 71 percent victory in 2024, while Rep. Salazar survived a recount to defeat Democrat Eliott Rodriguez by just 1,086 votes.
The results in Florida appear to reflect a combination of unusually strong Democratic mobilization and a shift in Latino voting patterns. Florida’s overall midterm turnout reached 60.9 percent, its second-highest level in 30 years, while Democratic voters in Miami-Dade turned out at higher rates than Republicans (68 percent versus 60 percent). As part of a broader national Latino shift, even Cuban Americans in Florida moved in the Democratic direction, although they remained the only major Latino subgroup to favor Republicans.
The implications of these elections, if any, for U.S.-Cuba policy remains unclear. Reactions among Cubans on the island have been mixed. Based on interviews conducted on the ground by EFE, some Cubans have expressed relief at the Democratic victories, anticipating that a change in Congress could ease U.S. pressure on the island. Others remained skeptical, questioning whether a change in Washington would meaningfully alter conditions on the ground in Cuba.
Much of the administration’s recent Cuba policy, including expanded sanctions authority and new Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) restrictions, has been implemented through executive action, limiting the scope for direct congressional intervention. Still, Democrats are hopeful that their oversight powers will help rein in the administration’s actions abroad. A new Democratic majority could provide a greater emphasis on humanitarian assistance to the island, oversight of business deals between U.S. companies and Cuba, and increased calls for transparency around bilateral channels.
Some speculate that the midterm election results could push President Trump to take drastic measures. In the days following the election, he has continued to reference Cuba in his public remarks stating on Monday “Cuba is falling” and as recently as yesterday, “I want to get Cuba done before I leave [office].” Historically, presidents facing a divided government have increasingly relied on executive authority, particularly in foreign policy, raising the possibility that the Trump administration could pursue more unilateral actions during its final two years. Cuban officials have made clear that they are still taking U.S. threats seriously and that the government is preparing for multiple scenarios.
Whether Secretary of State Marco Rubio will remain in the Trump administration or leave in anticipation of a 2028 presidential bid also raises questions about the future of Cuba policy within the administration. Mr. Rubio is the senior official with the greatest personal and political investment in the issue. As the son of Cuban immigrants and a former U.S. senator representing Florida, he has consistently advocated for tougher measures against Havana, helping shape U.S. policy toward the island for more than a decade.
While regime change remains an objective for this administration, continued reliance on maximum pressure could leave little room for diplomatic engagement or efforts to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. The most likely scenario is that the administration maintains or further intensifies its existing pressure campaign, continuing to add new layers of sanctions without a clear path toward meaningful progress on economic alternatives and political openings.
Those who care about the Cuban people must find a way to make the issue relevant to the Democratic congressional agenda, which will center on affordability, accountability, and congressional oversight. It cannot be allowed to disappear from the conversation, particularly as worsening conditions on the island compete with an electoral mandate that many have interpreted as a call for lawmakers to focus on domestic issues.
Will Cuba policy be forgotten while people on the island continue to suffer? The hope is that Congress can pursue a bipartisan affirmative agenda of its own, one that centers the Cuban people and recognizes the suffering inflicted by policies on both sides of the Florida Straits. The election presents an opportunity to rethink how the US approaches Cuba, but that opportunity will mean little if the people most affected remain an afterthought.
U.S.-CUBA NEWS
US Expands Cuba Sanctions, Targeting Additional Industries and Oil Shipping Networks
On November 5, the Department of State announced additional sanctions against eight companies and two individuals linked to tankers reportedly carrying oil to Cuba, state-owned businesses in electronics and energy services, and alleged military suppliers in China. The designations fall under the expanded powers of the May 1 executive order, which authorized secondary sanctions against foreign persons who conduct certain transactions with sanctioned individuals or entities. With these latest additions, the number of sanctioned individuals and entities has reached at least 59.
The individuals designated include Guillermo Faustino Rodríguez López-Calleja, brother of the late head of Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA), Cuba’s military business conglomerate. The Miami Herald previously reported that López-Calleja helped manage offshore shipping companies used to maintain Cuba’s trade and obtain financing by averting U.S. sanctions. State also sanctioned Any Rodríguez Lastres, the daughter of GAESA’s current president. Two China-based companies, China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation (CEIEC) and Beijing H&C Technologies, were designated for allegedly supplying military equipment to Cuba through Sociedad Mercantil Duna, which the US sanctioned in August.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the measures seek to prevent Cuba’s leadership from directing resources to its military and profiting from offshore networks. The expansion could also negatively affect the few foreign companies still doing business in Cuba, including France’s Pernod Ricard, which could face pressure to pull out of a joint venture that produces Havana Club rum in Cuba, making it more difficult for Cuba Ron to sell Havana Club abroad. The partnership dates back to the 1990s.
Cuban Man with Cancer Dies Two Days After Release from ICE Custody
On October 25, Gustavo Rivero Napoles, a 65-year-old Cuban man from Hialeah, Florida, died of cancer in a California hospital after approximately six months in immigration detention. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released him on October 23, but his family said he was unresponsive upon release. He was admitted into intensive care the same day. Mr. Rivero Napoles had been diagnosed with stage four liver cancer before entering ICE custody.
Relatives told the Miami Herald that he repeatedly reported severe pain and inconsistent access to medication. His sister filed a lawsuit seeking his release in September. A judge ordered the appointment of an attorney on October 26, the day after he died. Since ICE changed its policy in June to end the requirement to report and review deaths within 30 days of release, the agency will not publicly report his death or include it in its annual count of deaths in detention. Reports of inadequate access to medical treatment in ICE custody extend beyond his case. A joint investigation by the Associated Press and KFF Health News identified hundreds of detainees in at least 33 states who alleged serious medical neglect, including delays or interruptions in treatment for chronic conditions.
US Conducts Counter-Drone Exercises at Guantánamo as Cuba Conducts Military Exercises
On November 3, the U.S. Naval Station at Guantánamo Bay announced exercises testing its ability to detect and counter small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). Personnel practiced responding to drones simulating hostile activity, with participation from the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) and other military commands. The training follows an October announcement that Guantánamo would serve as a regional training and mission-support site for SOUTHCOM's Autonomous Warfare Command. The expansion of this command demonstrates the administration’s intensifying focus on security support and operations in Latin America and the Caribbean.
On November 10, public-flight tracking data showed a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone making several passes over waters between Havana and the Bahamas before returning to Florida. The same drone was tracked near Cuba in April and August, prompting fears of imminent military action. The November flight continued a pattern of U.S. surveillance activity around the island.
On November 4 and 5, Cuba held nationwide military exercises, followed by National Defense Day on November 6, a recurring mobilization in which military units, local defense councils, and civilians rehearse how they would respond to military threats. Cuba’s army and navy also displayed drones during the exercises. According to 14ymedio, the exercises included preparations against foreign aggression and scenarios involving internal unrest and threats to strategic infrastructure.
Six Sentenced in Cuban Migrant Smuggling and Asylum Fraud Case
On October 29, five Cuban nationals and one U.S. citizen received prison sentences for their roles in an international migrant smuggling, asylum fraud, and money laundering conspiracy. The defendants were sentenced to between two and four years in prison. All six pleaded guilty to charges related to their respective roles in the operation.
The network advertised smuggling and immigration services on social media, arranging irregular crossings at the southern border, and submitting fraudulent Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) applications for Cubans with European citizenship. Those applications falsely stated that the applicants had not been in Cuba since 2011. The Department of Justice (DOJ) also reported that the defendants laundered more than $22 million between 2021 and 2025 through shell companies. According to the DOJ, the network charged migrants between $1,500 and $40,000 and was responsible for more than 1,700 fraudulent asylum claims.
Florida Investigates Democratic Socialists of America Over Possible Funding From Cuba
On November 10, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced that his office had subpoenaed the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) to determine whether the group received prohibited financial or material support from sources in Cuba or China, and whether it complied with state law when soliciting donations in Florida. The subpoena seeks records on the group’s delegations to Cuba and China and how it raised money for those trips. In March, DSA members joined the Nuestra América aid convoy to Cuba and met with Cuban officials. A July State Department report criticized the group’s alleged ties to Cuba’s government. The subpoena came one week after the first DSA-backed candidate won a seat in Florida’s legislature and less than a month after Mr. Uthmeier’s office secured a state arrest warrant for Cuba’s former President Raúl Castro in connection to the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue planes.
IN CUBA
Three Independent Journalists Detained in Cuba in One Week
Cuban authorities detained three independent journalists in Havana in the first week of November. All were subsequently released, but reported threats, warnings, and the confiscation of equipment related to their work after release. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) condemned the arrests and called on authorities to allow journalists to report without fear of retaliation.
On November 2, police detained CubaNet contributor Adelth Bonne Gamboa near his home. After his release the same day, he reported that officers had confiscated his work equipment, threatened him with imprisonment, and fined him 3,000 pesos over his online publications. On November 3, state security agents detained Camila Acosta, another reporter for CubaNet and correspondent for Spain’s ABC. She was released that night and said authorities returned her phone inoperable and warned her against publishing footage of an official who had prevented her from leaving her home.
On November 5, agents detained 14ymedio founder and director Yoani Sánchez as she left home. She was released approximately nine hours later. Sánchez gained international recognition through Generación Y, a blog she launched in 2007 about daily life and censorship in Cuba. In a YouTube video shared by Sánchez after her release, she said plainclothes agents had handcuffed her without identifying themselves, subjected her to threats and pressure, and accused her of propaganda against the constitutional order. CPJ noted that members of 14ymedio have repeatedly faced short-term detention and restrictions on movement since its founding in 2014.
The November detentions come amid continued pressure on other independent voices. Henry Constantín, director of the independent outlet La Hora de Cuba, has been held in Camagüey since September 16. On November 6, authorities also detained evangelical pastor Rolando Pérez Lora after he accompanied a member of his religious organization who had been summoned by police.
The arrests are part of a broader crackdown on dissent that intensified after the July 2021 protests. Human Rights Watch reported in July 2026 that hundreds remain imprisoned, with nearly half connected to those demonstrations. Prisoners Defenders documented 1,351 total political prisoners at the end of September.
Cuba’s New Migration and Citizenship Laws Take Effect
On November 1, Cuba’s new migration, foreign nationals, and citizenship laws took effect, nearly two and a half years after their approval by the National Assembly. Published in May 2026, the laws permanently eliminate the rule that classified Cubans as emigrants after 24 consecutive months abroad.
Under the new rules, authorities automatically recognize effective residency for citizens who spend more than 180 days in Cuba over the previous year. Those who spend between 120 and 180 days may apply by demonstrating qualifying family, employment, or economic ties. Residents abroad for work, studies, health, or similar reasons may retain their status if they document those circumstances. However, the laws preserve each person’s existing migration status during the transition, meaning those previously classified as emigrants do not automatically regain residency status.
The citizenship law establishes a formal process for renouncing Cuban citizenship while retaining the requirement that dual nationals enter and leave Cuba as Cuban citizens. Dual nationals who present a foreign passport to enter Cuba while retaining Cuban citizenship when entering or leaving the country can face fines ranging from 30,000 to 100,000 pesos. The citizenship law also allows the president to revoke citizenship for actions abroad deemed contrary to Cuba’s economic and social interests. This broad authority creates another means of penalizing dissent among Cubans abroad, while restrictions on entry and exit already limit their ability to return home.
Cuba’s New Science Law Expands Private Participation in Research
On November 9, 2026, Cuba published its first general law on science, technology, and innovation, recognizing private businesses, cooperatives, and self-employed workers as participants in scientific research, allowing the government and private businesses to start technology companies together. The law, approved in December 2025, will take effect 60 days after its November 9 publication and provides for financing through loans, foreign investment, and payments for patents and research results. President Miguel Díaz-Canel said the legislation would help turn scientific knowledge into economic and social development. The law specifies for Cuba to devote a larger share of its GDP to science and innovation, but sets no spending target or deadline, and makes no commitments to improve researchers’ pay or equip laboratories.
The law also gives priority in allocating research funds to projects aligned with the state’s national science strategy. It recognizes researchers’ right to choose what they study and publish their findings, while requiring discretion on work considered economically, politically, or militarily sensitive. The opening creates more opportunities for private participation, but leaves researchers’ ability to secure funding and publish findings subject to government priorities.
Turkish Fuel Barge Departs Cuba Amid Fuel Shortages
On November 2, the Turkish floating power plant Erol Bey departed Havana’s port. Its owner, Karpowership, is a subsidiary of Turkey’s KaradenizHolding and began operating floating power plants in Cuba in 2019. The plant had a generating capacity of 63 megawatts at full capacity, enough to cover about 3 percent of Cuba’s projected electricity shortfall on November 3. However, it had remained idle for months because of fuel shortages. Cuba’s authorities have not explained its departure, although Cuba’s Minister of Energy and Mines Vicente de la O Levy had previously acknowledged difficulties meeting payments for the floating plants.
In February 2023, eight Turkish floating power plants were stationed in Cuba. The fleet in Havana and Mariel bays provided more than 400 megawatts of generating capacity and supplied 23 percent of Cuba’s electricity generation in 2023. By April 2026, only two Turkish plants remained in Havana. With the departure of Erol Bey, only one Turkish power plant remains, serving only as logistical support and providing no electricity to Cuba’s grid. The departure of the remaining generating plant removes capacity that could have returned to service if more fuel became available.
CUBA'S FOREIGN RELATIONS
Cuba’s Foreign Minister Visits China
On November 11, Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing during an official visit from November 10-13. Mr. Wang reiterated China’s opposition to U.S. sanctions on Cuba and called for closer coordination in international forums, while Mr. Rodríguez Parrilla reaffirmed Cuba’s support for Beijing’s one-China principle, which holds that Taiwan is part of China.
The talks came less than a week after the US sanctioned two Chinese companies over alleged military supplies to Cuba. Ahead of Mr. Rodríguez Parrilla’s visit, on November 6, Cuba and China signed three biotechnology agreements in Shanghai covering drug development, diagnostic tests, and a joint biopharmaceutical laboratory. The countries already have more than 30 biotechnology projects at various stages of research and development, and the head of Cuba’s state pharmaceutical group BioCubaFarma said the group was seeking more Chinese partners for investment projects. Access to Chinese investment and research facilities could help Cuba’s biotechnology sector bring more of its treatments and diagnostic tests into production, as recurring blackouts and limited access to financing hinder project development in Cuba.
Belize Ends Cuban Medical Program
On November 3, Belize’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Belize and Cuba would not renew the agreement under which Cuban medical personnel have served in Belize since 1990. Instead, Belize’s Ministry of Health and Wellness will offer individual employment contracts to Cuban health professionals already working in the country. Belize had been weighing individual contracts amid U.S. pressure to end government-to-government medical agreements with Cuba, alleging that Cuba’s overseas medical missions amount to forced labor. The decision follows Jamaica’s move to rehire Cuban health workers under individual contracts in October.
Jamaica’s Cuba Embargo Vote Draws Domestic Criticism
On November 3, Jamaica’s Parliament adjourned amid protests over the government’s abstention on the United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) annual resolution against the U.S. embargo on Cuba, which Jamaica had supported since 1992. Opposition legislator Anthony Hylton called for Parliament to formally reprimand the government, arguing that officials had not disclosed the planned abstention during a debate on Cuba the day before the UN vote. The dispute escalated when government leaders moved to end discussion after only two speakers.
Jamaica’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamina Johnson Smith defended the abstention and said Jamaica still opposed unilateral restrictions but believed the resolution had failed to produce change. The Jamaica Baptist Union rejected that reasoning, arguing that worsening access to food, medicine, and energy required stronger opposition to the embargo. Jamaica’s abstention came after the US mounted a lobbying campaign urging countries to oppose the resolution. The shift weakens longstanding Caribbean opposition to the embargo.
Fundraiser in Mexico Seeks to Send 40,000 Liters of Fuel to Cuba
On November 3, the Liga Cultural Antifascista announced a personal contribution from Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum to its campaign to send 40,000 liters of gasoline to Cuba. The campaign raises funds through stamps sold at Fondo de Cultura Económica bookstores, with each 25-peso purchase intended to fund one liter of gasoline. Organizers have not specified how the fuel would be transported, who would receive it, or which services it would support.
The initiative comes after Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex halted shipments to Cuba in January, limiting a source of supply for Cuba amid prolonged blackouts and transportation shortages. Eugenio Martínez Enríquez, Cuba’s Ambassador to Mexico, said officials are working to resume fuel shipments, although U.S. sanctions have complicated that possibility.
Cambridge and Nottingham Suspend Study Programs in Cuba
The universities of Cambridge and Nottingham have suspended their study programs in Cuba starting in February 2027. The suspensions followed the UK government’s advice against nonessential travel to the island. A Cambridge spokesperson said former students who had studied abroad on the island had experienced water shortages and weeks without electricity and explained that government travel guidance also affects access to travel insurance. The programs had brought British students to the University of Havana since the 1990s. The Director of Nottingham’s Centre for Research on Cuba expressed concern that the suspensions could become permanent, ending exchanges that allowed students to learn about Cuba through direct experience with its people and daily life.
Kenya and Antigua and Barbuda Shift Their Approach to Cuba Under U.S. Pressure
On November 10, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda Gaston Browne said his government withdrew its planned support for the October 28 UN General Assembly resolution opposing the U.S. embargo on Cuba, after State warned Antigua and Barbuda that supporting the resolution opposing the U.S. embargo on Cuba could undermine talks over U.S. visa restrictions on its citizens. The ambassador was instructed to abstain, though Antigua and Barbuda was ultimately recorded as absent.
Kenya reaffirmed its opposition to the embargo during the debate on the same resolution. The country’s Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Korir Sing’oei, recently linked the relocation of Kenya’s embassy from Havana to Jamaica to U.S. sanctions and said the move would provide temporary operational relief for diplomatic staff. Kenya had initially presented the move in August as part of a broader reorganization of its Caribbean presence. The country will maintain diplomatic relations with Cuba through its ambassador based in Jamaica, while Cuba’s embassy in Nairobi remains open.
Recommended Reading, Listening & Viewing:
Watch | CBS News: Cuba's doctors confront medicine and supply shortages along with power outages amid ongoing U.S. sanctions
Read | Wall Street Journal: The U.S. Cut Cuba Off From the World’s Oil. Now It Runs on American Fuel.
Read | Associated Press: Charity-run kitchens in Havana feed a growing number of Cubans as crisis deepens
Listen | NPR: Cuba grapples with ongoing economic and energy crisis
Listen | NPR: Struggling to survive in Cuba
Leer | UNESCO: Una exposición presenta parte de la memoria documental de Cuba reconocida por la UNESCO
Read | Wall Street Journal: Why the Lights Go Dark in Cub
Read | Americas Quarterly: A Midterm Setback Complicates Rubio’s Latin America Policy
Read | Responsible Statecraft: After midterm disaster, can Rubio still get Cuba regime to change?
Read | NBC News: Building collapses in Cuba create national emergency amid deepening economic crisis
Read | Miami Herald: Rosa María Payá says a transition plan for Cuba is ready and urges Europe to take a side
